With the diametrically opposing forces of various financial stimuli, lockdowns and restrictions on physical movements, the Australian monthly activity indicator (MAI) has exhibited both large and volatile movements since March last year.
After rebounding strongly in July and August, TDA’s Monthly Activity Indicator (MAI) was virtually flat in September and declined by a modest 0.2% in October; no doubt impacted by the residual effect of the Victorian lockdown. As a result, the annual rate of growth moderated slightly to be below its ten-year average.
After rising strongly in both July and August, The Data App’s (TDA) Monthly Activity Indicator (MAI) for Australia fell marginally in September, as restrictions placed on movement and activity in Victoria took hold. Following on from the 0.8% increase posted in August, the MAI declined 0.1% in September, thereby breaking a run of two consecutive monthly increases. The annual rate of growth moderated to be below its ten-year average.
The monthly activity indicator (MAI) for Australia, after surging in July, slowed dramatically in August, as tighter restrictions in Victoria started to take hold and also impact the broader economy. Following on from the largest monthly rise on record in July, the MAI moderated in August, rising by 0.8%. Even so, the annual growth rate remained in positive territory.
After contracting for the past three months, The Data App (TDA) estimates activity in Australia rebounded sharply in July. Following on from a 1% decline in June, TDA’s monthly activity indicator (MAI) increased by a record 3.7% in July. As a result, the annual rate of growth went from negative to positive territory.
The Data App (TDA) estimate activity in Australia contracted again in June, with the second largest monthly decline on record. The fall away in activity in June also means it has now fallen in five of the past six months. As a result of these contractions, nearly two years of activity has now been wiped out.
The Data App (TDA) estimate activity posted its second consecutive monthly decline in May. Following on from a 2.1% decline in April, TDA’s monthly activity indicator (MAI) fell a, more modest, 0.3% in May. So, for the first time, the annual growth in the MAI moved into negative territory.
TDA’s monthly activity indicator (MAI) estimates activity collapsed by a record rate in April. Following the largest ever increase posted by the MAI in March, a decline of over twice this magnitude was posted in April. Needless to say, the fall in April eclipsed anything recorded previously and suggests that, after holding up well in the first quarter of the year, the economy nose-dived shortly thereafter.
With no official monthly measure of Australian activity available, The Data App (TDA), a member of the PAR Group, has developed a Monthly Activity Indicator (MAI) to provide a timely measure of Australian economic activity. TDA estimate activity increased at a record rate in March, suggesting that since the start of the year the economy has held up well and that any downturn lays in the months ahead.
