Even though the number of shopping centres transacted in May was well down from the dizzy heights posted in April, they are still up on May last year. The latest estimates from The Data App show the number commercial retail property transactions in the three months to May up over 80% compared to a year earlier, as the Covid-19 induced slump in shopping centre activity has gradually waned.
The uncertain role of sub regional centres in the evolving Australian retail marketplace, post the COVID 19 pandemic, is highlighted by emerging yield spreads across retail assets according to a new study by the PAR Group.
Commercial retail property transactions in the month of April were the highest since October 2018, as some larger shopping centres were offloaded, while the demand for neighbourhood and large format centres remained solid. As a consequence, the latest figures from The Data App, show the number of transactions in the three months to April were up over 60% compared to a year earlier, while the value of transactions, at over $0.5 billion, is more than double for the same period a year ago.
A year ago, as the first wave of the pandemic hit, Australia embarked on a lockdown which was to last until the middle of May. Additionally, many states and territories have closed their borders at varying times, while there has been extended periods of social distancing. Although some essential retail spending benefitted from panic buying other, non-essential spending in shops was crimped by a combination of temporary/permanent shop closures and a sharp uptake in on-line spending.
With uncertainty surrounding the length, duration and impact of the pandemic, shopping centre transactions started to taper away, reaching a low around the middle of 2020.
Following a lull in trading activity during January, shopping centre transactions strengthened during February. Whilst the number, as well as the square metres, of shopping centres changing hands in the three months to February is lower than the same time last year, it is considerably stronger than the lows posted during 2020.
Investment activity for Australian commercial retail property was modest in January, and follows the spike in the number of transactions towards the end of last year. Whilst there is a high degree of volatility, and transactions are well down on a year earlier, they are, nevertheless, close to their long run trend.
In spite of the prominence of marquee international brands and national chains, over one third of retailers in Australia’s largest 31 shopping centres are small independents, according to a new study by the PAR Group.
With the diametrically opposing forces of various financial stimuli, lockdowns and restrictions on physical movements, the Australian monthly activity indicator (MAI) has exhibited both large and volatile movements since March last year.
After dwindling through the course of 2020, investment activity in Australia’s commercial retail property market picked in November and December, according to the latest findings from The Data App. Even though the number of transactions, on three-month average, remains well down on a year ago, December posted a marked upturn. Consequently, transactions are currently close to their long-run average.
After rebounding strongly in July and August, TDA’s Monthly Activity Indicator (MAI) was virtually flat in September and declined by a modest 0.2% in October; no doubt impacted by the residual effect of the Victorian lockdown. As a result, the annual rate of growth moderated slightly to be below its ten-year average.
